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Cray = Guess
A computer model has been devised that improves the ability to forecast whether
contrails will be formed behind high altitude jet aircraft. Such a capability would
be useful for, among other things, predicting whether strategic military aircraft
would likely be visible by eye to enemy forces. Radar and IR stealth doesn't do
much good for bombers if their presence is betrayed by contrails. The new model
boasts accurately foretelling contrails (but not their duration) on 223 out of 243
aircraft in the study. That means 92% of the time one can expect contrails. Sounds
great, but as "Science News" reader John Gilbert points out, "I propose the simplest
model: Always predict a contrail. You'll be right 92% of the time."
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