|
January 1962 Radio-Electronics
 [Table of Contents]
Wax nostalgic about and learn from the history of early electronics.
See articles from Radio-Electronics,
published 1930-1988. All copyrights hereby acknowledged.
|
According to
Radio-Electronics magazine editor Hugo Gernsback, some concern was mounting
in the electronics service industry that due to the rapid advancement of
microelectronics - in particular what would eventually be termed "integrated
circuits" - the present day (1962) type of service technician might no longer be
required. Postulated Mr. Gernsback, "When molecular electronics is mass-produced
- which will be soon - it is safe to assume that, since there are neither
mechanically fashioned nor soldered connections between individual components,
and since the total array of the components is so minute, it will theoretically
last for generations." His vision was that of what we have for the most part
today - throw-away electronic products, or at least products not serviceable by
anyone other than a specialist with proprietary test equipment. Even now, items
that were at least marginally repairable can no longer be serviced successfully.
I managed to replace a broken screen on my daughter's Galaxy S4 back around
2010, but I don't know if it's even possible to repair the one on her S22 (no,
that's not output return loss).
Future of Service Industry
 ... Service Technicians' Future Seems Assured ...
During the past few years, electronic breakthroughs have occurred that could
not have been imagined a decade ago. Beginning with the transistor revolution around
1950, in quick succession there evolved a miniaturization of most components, making
possible the module type of set whereby a whole radio (minus its speaker) could
be shrunk to less than 1 cubic inch.
A little later came moleculization that reduced transistors and their chief components
to such a microscopic size that you could no longer see the total assembly with
the naked eye. When molecular electronics is mass-produced - which will be soon
- it is safe to assume that, since there are neither mechanically fashioned nor
soldered connections between individual components, and since the total array of
the components is so minute, it will theoretically last for generations. Neither
air nor moisture will be able to get at the various parts. Because the mass and
volume - hence weight - of such an array of components are so microscopic, even
the most severe shocks should not damage it, unless violently crushed.
When such sophisticated electronic assemblies are then used in conjunction with
printed circuits, as they surely will be, it would seem that radio and TV sets thus
fashioned would last "forever" and never need servicing.
This reasoning, if we can believe the not-too-occasional letters from readers,
has turned many radio-electronic technicians into prophets of doom who can no longer
see any future in their business. "If," they say, "all new and upcoming sets are
manufactured so perfectly that they no longer fail, what's the sense of staying
in the servicing business?" Well, we answer, this reasoning is wrong.
To begin with, let us assume that the new super-receivers were to come off the
assembly lines tomorrow. Then let us take inventory and this is what we find:
There are now in existence in the US alone
186,300,000 home and personal radios
41,000,000 auto radios
34,500,000 radio-phonographs
55,700,000 television sets, not including closed-circuit TV.
On a conservative basis, these 317,500,000 receivers will probably require 20
years or more of servicing before they have "worn out" or become hopelessly antiquated.
Admittedly, the "average" life of a radio or other electronic device is much shorter.
But, if you look around, you will see numbers of good radios 15 to 20 years old,
and converted 1948 or 1949 TV sets that show no signs of an early demise. We should
also not lose sight of the important fact that even today a considerable percentage
of these tube sets never fail, if we except an occasional tube replacement. As we
are writing this, on top of our desk there sits an 11-year-old, four-tube, plastic,
molded-case, ac-dc radio. It is used daily, chiefly to get the news. Occasionally
it, runs for hours. Believe it or not, in 11 years it has never failed. No tube
has ever been replaced. The only failure was purely mechanical: the friction tuner
knob came loose and had to be tightened! We bring this up only because, if every
set in the land had to be serviced regularly, there would not be enough servicing
technicians to do the work and it would take months before every set owner could
have his set serviced.
Now let us consider the new molecular sets that may soon make their appearance
in vast quantities.
All the components, such as transistor, capacitors, resistors, etc., with the
exception of the speaker, tuning device and volume control, will probably be mounted
on a socket with pins, just as we do now with our tubes. There may be several such
component clusters and there may be a dozen or more contact pins to a cluster. Thus,
a complete amplifier stage with all its components will be in a single cluster.
Should anything go wrong, the cluster can be removed just as you remove a tube
today. The service technician probably will have a new type of troubleshooting instrument
which will inform him speedily which cluster failed and why. He will replace it
with a new one, discarding the old. If this system is economically unfeasible, the
cluster leads would then be soldered or mechanically fastened to the printed circuits.
Service technicians would then have to unfasten such a cluster, if defective, and
replace it with a new one.
TV sets, always more complex than any radio, will also require more servicing
because their greater complexity, even in the future, will make for more failures.
This will be true even when all TV's will be completely transistorized.
We can even foresee when future TV sets will be powered atomically. Atomic energy
will furnish the necessary high-voltage supply, probably quite independent of the
house cur-rent. In this manner all radios and TV's will be truly portable.
While future sets-radios, TV's and other wholly unimagined, communication, education
and entertainment units may theoretically become so perfect that they may never
require servicing, practically we doubt that this will ever come about.
There will always be intermittents, mechanical failures in various connections,
tuning devices, loud-speakers, volume controls and others, particularly devices
where continuous mobility or motion is necessary.
We are convinced that the prophets of doom who see the servicing industry going
to pot have .misread the future completely. In our complex civilization that requires
objects of many parts, be they clocks, cars, elevators, telephones, air conditioners
or TV's-a goodly percentage of them must be serviced occasionally, no matter how
careful their construction. Even such well constructed objects as humans with a
long history of millions of years behind them must also be serviced occasionally
by those well trained technicians, the medical doctors. Serviced they always will
be, far into the most distant future we can foresee.
- Hugo Gernsback
|
